【 – 写作指导】
篇一:《买体彩注意事项》
买体彩注意事项 中国体育彩票是指：为筹集体育事业发展资金发行的，印有号码、图形或文字，供人们自愿购买并按照特定规则获取中奖权力的书面凭证。体育彩票不计名，不挂失，不返回本金，不计付利息，不能流通使用。目前中国体育彩票的种类有：超级大乐透、排列3、排列5、七星彩、地方体彩、足球彩票、竟彩、顶呱刮。
买体彩需注意：要有良好的心理素质，胜败乃兵家常事
了解每一种玩法的规则
做好充分的分析和预测。关注一些足彩的相关微信公众号获取一手消息
如果中奖了，请记得及时兑奖哦，过期不候呢！
篇二:《为什么人们喜欢买彩票,为什么会因小失大ted演讲》
Dan Gilbert: Why we make bad decisions
0:11We all make decisions every day; we want to know what the right thing is to do — in domains from the financial to the gastronomic to the professional to the romantic. And surely, if somebody could really tell us how to do exactly the right thing at all possible times, that would be a tremendous gift.
0:29It turns out that, in fact, the world was given this gift in 1738 by a Dutch polymath
named Daniel Bernoulli. And what I want to talk to you about today is what that gift is, and I also want to explain to you why it is that it hasn't made a damn bit of difference.
0:46Now, this is Bernoulli's gift. This is a direct quote. And if it looks like Greek to you, it's because, well, it's Greek. But the simple English translation — much less precise, but it captures the gist of what Bernoulli had to say — was this: The expected value of any of our actions — that is, the goodness that we can count on getting — is the product of two simple things: the odds that this action will allow us to gain something, and the value of that gain to us.
0:11大家每天都在做决定；谁都想知道 如何做正确的事情–无论是金融、 烹饪，还是职业、爱情方面 那么，如果有人能指导我们 每次都做对 那将是一个非常了不起的才能
0:29其实，早在1738年世人就见识过了拥有这项才能的人 他是荷兰学者Daniel
Bernoulli 今天我们就来讲这是怎样一种才能 我还会告诉你为什么即使知道其中的道理 也不会事事顺利
0:46这就是Bernoulli的思路，原始的表述 如果这看起来像希腊字母一样，是因为，嗯，这确实是希腊字母。 翻译成英语–没有原文那样的精确 但基本上诠释了Bernoulli的主要思想，那就是 我们任何行为的预估价值 或者说能得到的好处 是两样东西的乘积 一个是成功的概率 另一个是成功所带来的价值{为什么现在不能买体彩了}.
1:18In a sense, what Bernoulli was saying is, if we can estimate and multiply these two things, we will always know precisely how we should behave.
1:26Now, this simple equation, even for those of you who don't like equations, is
something that you're quite used to. Here's an example: if I were to tell you, let's play a little coin toss game, and I'm going to flip a coin, and if it comes up heads, I'm going to pay you 10 dollars, but you have to pay four dollars for the privilege of playing with me, most of you would say, sure, I'll take that bet. Because you know that the odds of you winning are one half, the gain if you do is 10 dollars, that multiplies to five, and that's morethan I'm charging you to play. So, the answer is, yes. This is what statisticians technically call a damn fine bet.
1:18从某种程度上说，Bernoulli想表达的是 如果我们能预估这两个因素并将其相乘 我们总能知道怎样去做
1:26而这个简单的等式，即使对于你们中间 不喜欢等式的人来说，也是非常容易理解的 举个例子：假如我告诉你 我们来猜硬币，我扔一枚硬币 人头朝上，我输你10美元 但你必须先付给我4美元来玩儿 很多人会说，好啊，我跟你玩。因为你知道 你有50%的赢面，而赢了能得到10美元 两者相乘得5，要比你付的4美元多 所以当然要玩儿 统计学家们称之为―完美赌局‖
2:03Now, the idea is simple when we're applying it to coin tosses, but in fact, it's not very simple in everyday life. People are horrible at estimating both of these things, and that's what I want to talk to you about today.
2:16There are two kinds of errors people make when trying to decide what the right thing is to do, and those are errors in estimating the odds that they're going to succeed, and errors in estimating the value of their own success. Now, let me talk about the first one first. Calculating odds would seem to be something rather easy: there are six sides to a die, two sides to a coin, 52 cards in a deck. You all know what the likelihood is of pulling the ace of spades or of flipping a heads. But as it turns out, this is not a very easy idea to apply in everyday life. That's why Americans spend more — I should say, lose more — gambling than on all other forms of entertainment combined. The reason is, this isn't how people do odds.
2:03在丢硬币的游戏中道理是很简单的 然而在日常生活中就没那么简单了 人们估计这两件事情的水平都很差 这正是我今天要讲的
2:16人们做决策时 会犯两种错误 即错误地估算成功的概率 和错误地估算成功的价值 我们先说第一种错误 计算成功的概率貌似比较容易 1个骰子6个面、一个硬币2个面，一叠扑克52张 谁都知道抽到黑桃A的概率 或者丢硬币人头朝上的概率 然而事实证明，具体情况下似乎没有那么简单 这也就是为什么美国人在赌博上的花费 更确切地说是赌博输掉的钱 比其它所有娱乐活动花费总和还多 其原因就是，概率并不是人们计算的那样
3:02The way people figure odds requires that we first talk a bit about pigs. Now, the question I'm going to put to you is whether you think there are more dogs or pigs on leashes observed in any particular day in Oxford. And of course, you all know that the answer is dogs. And the way that you know that the answer is dogs is you quickly
reviewed in memory the times you've seen dogs and pigs on leashes. It was very easy to remember seeing dogs, not so easy to remember pigs. And each one of you assumedthat if dogs on leashes came more quickly to your mind, then dogs on leashes are more probable.That's not a bad rule of thumb, except when it is.
3:02人们如何计算概率呢？ 说到这里我们先要讨论一个关于猪的问题 这个问题就是，你们觉得 任意一天，在牛津镇上被链子拴着的狗更多 还是猪更多？ 你们都会说：当然狗更多 大
家得出这个狗比猪多的结论是因为 你们迅速回忆以前 曾经见过的被拴着的狗和猪 很容易就想起见过狗 好像没怎么见过猪。所以便假设 既然能快速地想起见过狗 应该是被拴着的狗更多些 凭经验判断通常是对的，但这次你错了
3:40So, for example, here's a word puzzle. Are there more four-letter English words with R in the third place or R in the first place? Well, you check memory very briefly, make a quick scan, and it's awfully easy to say to yourself, Ring, Rang, Rung, and very hard to say to yourself, Pare, Park: they come more slowly.But in fact, there are many more words in the English language with R in the third than the first place.The reason words with R in the third place come slowly to your mind isn't because they're improbable, unlikely or infrequent. It's because the mind recalls words by their first letter. You kind of shout out the sound, S — and the word comes. It's like the dictionary; it's hard to look things up by the third letter. So, this is an example of how this idea that the quickness with which things come to mind can give you a sense of their probability –
3:40再拿猜字游戏举个例子 哪种4个字母的单词更多？ R在第三个还是R在第一个 你又迅速回忆 很容易想到 Ring，Rang，Rung 很难回忆出，Pare, Park，至少要慢很多 但实际上，在英文中更多的是 第三个字母是R的单词 想到这些单词要慢一些 并不是因为它们不重要、不常见 而是因为我们的大脑是根据首字母忆单词的 你发出一个S音，就能想起一大串单词来 就像字典一样 而根据第3个字母去查单词往往很难 所以这是一个例子 大脑的反应速度 能暗示你概率的大小
4:30how this idea could lead you astray. It's not just puzzles, though. For example, when Americans are asked to estimate the odds that they will die in a variety of interesting ways — these are estimates of number of deaths per year per 200 million U.S. citizens. And these are just ordinary people like yourselves who are asked to guess how many people die from tornado, fireworks, asthma, drowning, etc. Compare these to the actual numbers. 4:54Now, you see a very interesting pattern here, which is first of all, two things are vastly over-estimated, namely tornadoes and fireworks. Two things are vastly
underestimated: dying by drowning and dying by asthma. Why? When was the last time that you picked up a newspaper and the headline was, "Boy dies of Asthma?" It's not
interesting because it's so common. It's very easy for all of us to bring to mind instances of news stories or newsreels where we've seen tornadoes devastating cities, or some poor schmuck who's blown his hands off with a firework on the Fourth of July. Drownings and asthma deaths don't get much coverage. They don't come quickly to mind, and as a result, we vastly underestimate them.
4:30这个结果将把你引向错误的道路。不仅仅是填字游戏 例如，曾在美国人中做过调查，要求他们预测 各种各样匪夷所思死法发生的几率 估计每年 每2亿美国人当中的死亡人数 这些被调查者都是跟你我一样的普通人猜测因为以下原因死亡：飓风、烟火、哮喘、溺水的人数 然后和真实发生的数据对比
4:54一个非常有意思的现象出现了，首先 两项数据大大超过实际值：飓风和烟火 两项数据又被大大地低估了 即死于溺水和哮喘病，为什么呢？ 你什么时候在报纸的头版上读到过 ―男童死于哮喘‖？ 这条新闻非常无趣因为它太常见了 而大家却很容易想起来 曾经看过的电视或者新闻中报道 飓风摧毁城市，或者某个倒霉鬼 在国庆日被烟火蹦掉了脑袋 因为对溺水、哮喘报道的不多 在头脑中印象不深，所以 我们大大低估了这些东西
5:36Indeed, this is kind of like the Sesame Street game of "Which thing doesn't belong?" And you're right to say it's the swimming pool that doesn't belong, because the swimming pool is the only thing on this slide that's actually very dangerous. The way that more of you are likely to die than the combination of all three of the others that you see on the slide.
5:55The lottery is an excellent example, of course — an excellent test-case of people's ability to compute probabilities. And economists — forgive me, for those of you who play the lottery — but economists, at least among themselves, refer to the lottery as a stupidity tax, because the odds of getting any payoff by investing your money in a lottery ticket are approximately equivalent to flushing the money directly down the toilet — which, by the way, doesn't require that you actually go to the store and buy anything.{为什么现在不能买体彩了}.
5:36实际上，这就好像―芝麻街‖游戏中 ―以下哪个选项与其他不同？‖的问题，你觉得 游泳池跟其它的都不一样，因为游泳池 其实是最最危险的东西！ 你们在游泳池中死亡的概率 比其它三个的总和还多
5:55买彩票是一个绝佳案例—这是测试人们计算概率能力的 一个极好的例子 经济学家–你们中间买彩票的人请原谅我这么说– 至少经济学家们，认为买彩票是一种 为愚蠢交的税，因为买彩票 中大奖的几率 几乎和你直接用马桶 把钱冲掉是一样的 起码这样还不用你费力跑到商店去买一下
6:23Why in the world would anybody ever play the lottery? Well, there are many answers, but one answer surely is, we see a lot of winners. Right? When this couple wins the
lottery, or Ed McMahon shows up at your door with this giant check — how the hell do you cash things that size, I don't know. We see this on TV; we read about it in the
paper. When was the last time that you saw extensive interviews with everybody who lost? Indeed, if we required that television stations run a 30-second interview with each loser every time they interview a winner, the 100 million losers in the last lottery would require nine-and-a-half years of your undivided attention just to watch them say, "Me? I lost." "Me? I lost." Now, if you watch nine-and-a-half years of television — no sleep, no potty breaks — and you saw loss after loss after loss, and then at the end there's 30 seconds of, "and I won," the likelihood that you would play the lottery is very small.
6:23究竟为什么还有人买彩票呢？ 有很多种解释，很显然，但其中有一个一定是 我们看到了很多赢家，对吗？有一对夫妇中了头彩 或者Ed McMahon在你家门口，拿着巨大的一张支票 你想怎么花这一大笔钱呢？ 我们在电视里面看到过；在报纸上也看到过 但你什么时候
看到大规模采访 买彩票输了的人？ 实际上，如果我们要求电视台 在采访每个赢家的同时，对每位没有中彩的人来一个30秒的采访 那么这1亿位 上一个彩票开奖后的输家将要花9.5年的时间 不间断地告诉你说： ―我，输了‖，―我，输了‖…… 如果你看了九年半的电视不休不眠–看到一个接一个的输家 然后最后的30秒钟有一个―我，赢了！‖ 你买彩票的可能性就会小很多
7:17Look, I can prove this to you: here's a little lottery. There's 10 tickets in this{为什么现在不能买体彩了}.
lottery. Nine of them have been sold to these individuals. It costs you a dollar to buy the ticket and, if you win, you get 20 bucks. Is this a good bet? Well, Bernoulli tells us it is. The expected value of this lottery is two dollars; this is a lottery in which you should invest your money. And most people say, "OK, I'll play."{为什么现在不能买体彩了}.
7:39Now, a slightly different version of this lottery: imagine that the nine tickets are all
owned by one fat guy named Leroy. Leroy has nine tickets; there's one left. Do you want it? Most people won't play this lottery. Now, you can see the odds of winning haven't
changed, but it's now fantastically easy to imagine who's going to win. It's easy to see Leroy getting the check, right? You can't say to yourself, "I'm as likely to win as
anybody," because you're not as likely to win as Leroy. The fact that all those tickets are owned by one guy changes your decision to play, even though it does nothing whatsoever to the odds. 7:17现在我证明给你看：这里有一个彩票 一共10张 其中的9张已经卖给了不同的人 1张彩票1美元，如果你赢了你将得到20美元，这个赌局怎么样？ 那么按照Bernoulli的逻辑 这个彩票的期望回报是2美元 应该去买 而且大多数人都会说―嗯，我要买‖
7:39现在我稍稍改变一下条件 设想其它9张彩票都卖给了 一个叫Leroy的胖子 Leroy有9张，还剩下1张 你买不买？大多数人不会买 其实赢的几率并没有变 但很更容易看出谁会赢 显然Leroy会赢，对吗？ 你现在不敢说―我和其它人一样有机会赢‖ 显然你的赢面不可能和Leroy一样 所有彩票都被一个人买走的事实 改变了你的决定 即使这对概率丝毫没有影响
8:13Now, estimating odds, as difficult as it may seem, is a piece of cake compared to trying to estimate value: trying to say what something is worth, how much we'll enjoy
it, how much pleasure it will give us.I want to talk now about errors in value. How much is this Big Mac worth? Is it worth 25 dollars? Most of you have the intuition that it's not — you wouldn't pay that for it.{为什么现在不能买体彩了}.
8:37But in fact, to decide whether a Big Mac is worth 25 dollars requires that you ask one, and only one question, which is: What else can I do with 25 dollars? If you've ever gotten on one of those long-haul flights to Australia and realized that they're not going to serve you any food, but somebody in the row in front of you has just opened the McDonald's bag, and the smell of golden arches is wafting over the seat, you think, I can't do anything else with this 25 dollars for 16 hours. I can't even set it on fire — they took my cigarette lighter! Suddenly, 25 dollars for a Big Mac might be a good deal.
篇三:《怎么样在网上购买彩票》{为什么现在不能买体彩了}.
在电子商务越来越发展的今天，吃的穿的玩的都可以在网上购买，价格比实体店要优惠很多。而且还会有多种的促销模式。是不是有的亲还不知道怎么在网上购买呢？这也是一些对电脑购物还不太了解的亲们所关心的问题。今天我们暂不说别的。先以彩票为例
现在网上购彩也已经很完善了，但是不要去一些小的网站。小的平台资金不安全。如注册地址和购彩地址不一样。赔率1800-1950之间这些的。都是一些小平台。正规的官彩网都是按照国家标准。
想买彩的可以去一路发彩票网站/?id=892027 很不错的一个购买网站。中奖后有送高达60倍的积分。积分还可以换钱。想买彩票的可以加群282556858，互相交流。
网上买彩票的具体流程如下：
首先:注册账户。 也就是在网站上注册一个属于自己的个人账户。登陆彩票网在上面注册一个属于自己的账户设置好密码。为了账户的安全最好是先进入账户里面绑定真实资料比如身份证、银行卡、邮箱、手机号码等等这些东西可以保护账户的安全密码忘记了也可以找回如果中了大奖网站也会第一时间通知你与你分享中奖的喜悦甚至还会对你做电话采访。身份证信息要和绑定的银行卡一致这个很重要是提款的重要依据
第二步:充值 登陆自己刚刚注册的账户然后充值。为什么先充值的呢因为彩票的价格大家都知道这个跟在别的行业可能有些不一样。一般别的行业都是可以先在网上找到自己想要的东西了然后根据价格来选择向网站充值这主要是因为那些东西的价格具有不固定性而彩票不同价格是固定的因此用户一般选择直接先往账户里面充值充值完成以后就可以在账户余额那里看到你充值的金额。随着网上银行的发展网上银行支付已经日益成为最方便安全的选择当然另外还有一些其他的充值方式比如支付宝手机充值卡银联手机充值即电话支付等等细节途径可以登陆彩票网上看看里面都有详细说明。
第三:购买 登陆注册的账户点击购彩页面选择自己想要购买的彩种选择自己认为可能中奖的号码点击购买。也许这个过程是最简单的不就是买东西吗谁不会啊其实这个过程也是最难的因为要很好的技术积累要好的运气才能选中号码中奖。在购买完成以后可以再次进入我的账户在购买列表里面会看到自己的购买记录以及详细信